Between Cooperation and Isolation: A Comparative Analysis of Water Governance in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in the Aral Sea Basin

Abstract:
The Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest inland water body, has undergone one of the most dramatic environmental transformations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Its decline began during the Soviet period, when the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers were extensively diverted to support large-scale irrigation, particularly for cotton and wheat production. This led to severe ecological degradation, including the collapse of fisheries, soil salinization, public health crises, and the emergence of toxic dust storms. Today, the Aral Sea crisis is not merely an environmental concern but a deeply political issue shaped by competing national interests over shared water resources in Central Asia.
The Aral Sea basin, encompassing Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, is of significant regional importance for sustaining agriculture, livelihoods, and energy production. While upstream states such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan prioritize hydropower generation, downstream countries, particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, depend heavily on irrigation-based agriculture. This upstream–downstream dynamic has transformed water into a central element of regional geopolitics, making cooperation both essential and complex.
This paper focuses on Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, two downstream states highly dependent on the Amu Darya River and among the most affected by the Aral Sea's decline. The study compares their responses across domestic water policies, governance structures, and engagement with regional and international frameworks. Methodologically, it adopts a qualitative, comparative approach based on secondary data, including policy documents, reports from international organizations, and academic literature. By comparing national strategies and regional interactions, the paper identifies patterns of cooperation, divergence, and policy adaptation, situating the Aral Sea crisis within the broader framework of transboundary water politics, governance, regional interdependence, and sustainable resource management.