Abstract:
Import dependence has been one of
the structural challenges of Afghanistan’s economy over the
past two decades. Due to weak domestic production and limited
economic infrastructure, it has played an important role in
shaping the country’s economic growth. The high share of
imports in supplying consumer and production goods has made
Afghanistan’s economy vulnerable to external fluctuations,
exchange rate changes, and trade shocks, affecting the trade
balance and the capacity for sustainable growth.
This study aims to examine the impact of import dependence on
Afghanistan’s economic growth during the period 2002–2025.
Annual time series data from reliable domestic and
international sources were used. The dependent variable is
the real GDP growth rate, and the main independent variable
is the import dependence index (ratio of imports to GDP).
Domestic investment, exports of goods and services, and the
exchange rate are included as control variables.
The study uses the OLS method, and the relationships between
variables are analyzed using a multivariate regression model
and standard diagnostic tests. The expected results indicate
that import dependence has a significant negative effect on
Afghanistan’s economic growth, while domestic investment and
export development can mitigate this negative effect. The
findings can provide a basis for policies aimed at reducing
import dependence and promoting sustainable economic growth
in the country.
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